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USD/RUB BGN Holds Above 100 Ahead of Expected CBR Hold; Focus on Nabiullina Presser

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN trades +0.33% higher this morning, treading water above the 100 handle after trading mostly sideways yesterday in illiquid conditions.
  • The cross has fallen -21.96% w/w, in line with improving Russia-Ukraine dialogue and traded in a wide 31.64% range from 91-133.
  • Today’s CBR meeting is expected to see policy kept on hold at 20% as the bank awaits more data-driven visibility in the effects of sanctions, while Nabiullina’s presser will be closely monitored as speculation about her resignation swirls.
  • Russia’s military progress remains stalled as ceasefire talks show scant progress in the last few days with negotiators tempering Wednesday’s surge in optimism over a near-term ceasefire deal.
  • Nevertheless, the dialogue has improved and tensions moderated slightly vs a week ago, with Russia losing political and military momentum.
  • The focus is still on ceasefire talks going into the weekend and establishment of grounds for a Zelensky-Putin meeting in coming weeks.

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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