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USD/RUB Hovers Around its 200dma as CBR Approaches; Sell-side Sees 75-100bp Hike

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades +0.17% higher this morning, with a firmer BBDXY neutralising early gains in oil markets.
  • Central banks are the key focal point of the week with the FOMC on Wednesday followed by the ECB & CBR on Thurs/Fri to cap-off the 2021 central banking calendar.
  • Markets are broadly anticipating a move towards faster tapering from the FOMC with the programme expected to end earlier than expected and pave the way for 2-3 hikes in 2022.
  • Meanwhile, the CBR is expected to raise rates towards 8.25-8.50% (+75-100bp) on Friday with MPC officials and Putin voicing their concerns over the current path of inflation in recent weeks.
  • 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have fallen -22bp since 07 Dec and are currently holding at +78bp. A firmer RUB and favourable base effects have been highlighted as reasons for +75bp by analysts, but those favouring +100bp note elevated expectations as a key determinant in a larger step.
  • Oil markets continue to rise on signs that Omicron may not produce the aggressive wave of lockdowns that were initially anticipated with Brent eyeing $77.02 to the topside.
  • USD/RUB is hovering just below 200dma at 73.55 after breaking the level on Friday.
  • Next downside objective is seen at 72.8355 (100dma). Intraday Sup1: 73.1560, Sup2: 72.8355, Res1: 73.6763, Res2: 73.7629
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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