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USD Slightly Firmer, EUR/USD Up From Earlier Lows Though

FOREX

Outside of some early EUR/USD weakness, it has been a relatively steady G10 FX start. The BBDXY sits marginally higher, last near 1261.3, a touch above Friday lows at 1259.30.

  • EUR/USD got close to 1.0800 in early Asia Pac dealing, as exit polls from the second round of the of French legislative elections showed as the left New Popular Front (NFP) unexpectedly won the most seats but not enough to have a majority. This casts fresh political uncertainty for the country, with potential for a hung parliament, but also potentially more loose fiscal policy.
  • The pair has stabilized somewhat, last near 1.0820 (still off around 0.20%), while French bond futures have opened lower, and imply spread widening against Germany in yield terms.
  • USD/JPY has been relatively steady, last near 160.70, close to unchanged. This is leaving the yen slightly outperforming other majors. Earlier data showed labour earnings, where the headlines were weaker than forecast, with real wages still negative. The detail showed better results, particularly in terms of the same sample base figures.
  • AUD and NZD are both down a little over 0.10%, A$ last near 0.6740, while NZD/USD close to 0.6135.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields are around 2bps higher in early dealings, following Friday's dips. This may be helping the USD at the margin. US equity futures are down around 0.15%.
  • Looking ahead we have Australian housing finance figures and Japan survey data later, but these are unlikely to shift the sentiment needle.

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