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USD/THB Eyeing 36.00 Test, Dividend Outflows Expected To Weigh In April

THB

USD/THB is just off earlier highs (35.965), sitting near 35.95 in latest dealings. We are still down nearly 0.50% for the session in spot terms. We sit comfortably above all the key EMAs (with the 20-day near 35.74), the closest on the downside. Topside focus will be on test above 36.00, note Feb highs in the pair came in around 36.20.

  • Catch up with a further recovery in USD sentiment (post Friday's onshore spot close) is in play, while domestic equity market sentiment is yet to breach Feb highs.
  • Portfolio flows from offshore investors remain negative in terms of both equities and bonds in March to date.
  • Sell-side analysts are also highlighting negative seasonality for THB. Dividend outflows are expected to be 81bn baht this year, up from 72bn baht last per onshore analysis (see this BBG link). The majority of outflows are expected to hit in mind to late April.
  • In terms of the data calendar, it is light this week, with just car sales potentially on tap, followed by the usual weekly FX reserves number on Friday.
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