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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • USD/TRY trades +0.04% higher this morning broadly bucking early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +1.19% in yesterday's session, breaking its consolidation pattern and the key 8.52 level following stronger than expected US retail sales that sent UST yields sharply higher in the afternoon.
  • 12-month expected inflation data will be monitored ahead of next week's CBRT with some international analysts alluding to the possibility of a -50bp cut as early as this meeting – against bbg and local analyst consensus currently pointing to a hold at 19.00%.
  • Deputy FM Onal is in Washington for the final day of bilateral talks, and the hope is we will see some more info or a press conference emerge in today's session for info on the discussions.
  • The cross is now firmly in bull mode, with yesterday's large engulfing candle enveloping the 50 & 100dmas.
  • Next major levels to the topside come in at 8.6134 & 8.6815. Intraday Sup1: 8.5188, Sup2: 8.4883, Res1: 8.5875, Res2: 8.6064
  • Turkey 5Y CDS