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- USD/TRY trades +0.28% higher this morning, treading water below 13.80 as the cross continues to drift higher in line with a firmer USD and weak TRY sentiment.
- USD/TRY has risen over +11% since Monday’s open on the back of more dovish promises from Erdogan, the removal of FinMin Elvan and the threat of infringement proceedings from the CoE.
- Today’s CPI print reinforces the scope of the problem turkey faces and the potential for CPI to go much higher in December with the real brunt of the FX passthrough not yet transmitted through to November prices.
- This moves Turkish real yields more deeply into negative territory, making TRY assets acutely vulnerable to bouts of USD strength going into 2022. This is only expected to become worse with another rate cut in December.
- CBRT efforts to defend the currency are also futile with its limited stock of reserves, which should keep USD/TRY biased higher into year-end.
- On the international front, markets will gauge US NFP data for a volatile end to a week of choppy USD price action.
- Intraday Sup1: 13.4539, Sup2: 13.1308, Res1: 13.9519, Res2: 14.21