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Free AccessUSD/TRY Stalls at 8.30 as Real Yields Slip Into Negative Territory, CBRT In the Spotlight
- USD/TRY trades +0.03% higher this morning, having failed to deliver a new weekly low in Friday's session.
- The cross failed to hold onto 8.30 in early trading with real yields moving into negative territory following the higher CPI print at 19.25% vs the 1wk repo at 19.00%.
- This poses difficulties for the CBRT in next week's meeting in terms of honouring promises for above inflation rates against historic pressure from Erdogan to keep rates lower.
- CBRT credibility will be placed firmly in the spotlight at the next meeting with any failure to hike likely being received negatively by markets, while delivering a hike risks seeing Kavcioglu follow the same fate as his predecessor Agbal – so the question remains: Will Kavcioglu cave to pressure or not?
- In the meanwhile, the slightly reduced carry will likely dent TRY optimism at these firmer levels which has been supported in recent weeks by broad based risk on and the rebuilding of CBRT FX reserves through swap agreements & IMF SDRs.
- For this week, the lack of local data means USD/TRY will likely be driven primarily by CBRT expectations, global risk conditions, the ECB and US PPI in the latter part of the week.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.2969, Sup2: 8.2642, Res1: 8.3649, Res2: 8.4021
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.