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Free AccessUSD/TRY Trades Choppily Ahead of CBRT, Bar Set High for Hawkish Guidance Tweaks
- USD/TRY opens -0.22% lower this morning with markets relieved that Erdogan fell short of making more destabilising comments regarding CBRT policy and inflation in his evening address.
- The cross traded choppily following yesterday's US CPI miss, failing to strengthen in line with high-beta peers RUB & ZAR owing to light pre-CBRT positioning and concerns over Erdogan's speech.
- Today's focus shifts to the CBRT where broad expectations align with a hold on rates at 19.00%, despite rapidly rising CPI.
- While the CBRT may shift its guidance to convey maximum hawkishness, the market has set a high bar for any material shift in expectations for premature easing against market conditions in the coming months.
- Although the predominant expectation is for a hold at this meeting, there may be some pre-emptive pricing in of a cut that could cause some post-statement gyrations in USD/TRY and local bonds – but nothing too major at this juncture.
- Our base case, however, remains for markets to favour fading TRY strength in the coming months as the CBRT reaction function becomes more dovish.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.5875, Sup2: 8.5516, Sup3: 8.5516, Res1: 8.6399, Res2: 8.6712, Res3: 8.7092
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.