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USD/TRY Treads Water above 7.50; EU Summit Coming Into Focus

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY treading water at the open with the greenback mostly subdued after a buoyant week.
  • Risk sentiment is slightly on the backfoot after more equity losses in APAC, with markets still focused on US treasury yields.
  • Limited local data points this week outside of industrial production, the cross should remain vulnerable to US-side developments and perceived progress on repairing regional ties & human rights issues ahead of the March 25-26 EU summit.
  • However, these will likely be tempered by continued interest in Russian S-400s and Blue Homeland naval displays in the East Med, which concluded over the weekend.
  • While this clears the way for more exploratory talks with Greece, relations remain fragile, but Erdogan may try push for a meeting before the EU summit to demonstrate further de-escalation to the EU.
  • USD/TRY remains pegged above 7.50 and will need to take out 7.5835 to see more upside. Next week's CBRT remains the key focal point following upside surprises in CPI, risking further policy tightening.
  • Intraday Sup1: 7.4769, Sup2: 7.3935, Res1: 7.5835, Res2: 7.6153
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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