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Support Appears Exposed


Greenback Bounces To Three-Week Highs


Downtrend Remains Intact

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  • USD/TRY trades mostly flat around the open, broadly in line with tentative BBDXY price action and weaker risk sentiment filtering through from the APAC session.
  • The cross ended yesterday's session +0.17% higher, with volatile price action in the USD and a sharp decline in US Treasuries post-US CPI boosting intraday volatility.
  • USD/TRY has also yet to respond to the decision to raise the FX & gold reserve requirements by 200bp, but may bely some concern from the Central bank as it approaches a difficult period of policy ahead of next week's meeting.
  • Comments from the UN regarding the non-return of Syrian refugees could also be an interesting development as Erdogan pushes to regain some support by promising to return migrants in line with the current domestic feeling about excessive migration.
  • On the covid front, cases have ticked closer to 30,000 overnight – but no signs of increased restrictions in the pipeline just yet.
  • USD/TRY remains pegged in a lateral range from 8.40-8.52 for now, awaiting a breakout to confirm a more decisive near-term direction.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4238, Sup2: 8.4021, Res1: 8.4883, Res2: 8.524