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- USD/ZAR trades +0.16% higher this morning, broadly tracking USD/CNH price action.
- The cross traded choppily in yesterday's session, finally showing some more comprehensive vulnerability following US CPI – rising above 15.3045 resistance and the 100dma to form a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
- Focus today will be on July retail sales data – expected to decline m/m & y/y. On the political front, fired ANC member Carl Niehaus is pushing ahead with his fraud and corruption case against the ANC Top 6, and could be a new source of factional disruption for the Ramaphosa camp now that he has been fired.
- Beyond this, we see US industrial/manufacturing production data this afternoon, which should drive the USD side of the cross today.
- Momentum has shifted higher in the cross after a number of days of consolidation, with the next major resistance points at 14.50 and the 200dma at 14.57.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.2732, Sup2: 14.1701, Res1: 14.3747, Res2: 14.5042