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USD/ZAR Pressures 14.50 as Fed/SARB Week Approaches, 1-3m Vols Subdued

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.49% higher this morning, retaining its bullish bias from the prior session – supported by early buying pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +0.68% yesterday, broadly bucking the trend of USD weakness as markets saw near-term vulnerabilities in ZAR at these firmer levels.
  • The cross accelerated above its 100dma and is now approaching a resistance cluster in the 14.50-14.61 zone from lateral support, 38.2% fib and the 50 & 200dmas.
  • Concerns about a relatively more hawkish than expected Fed next week, set against an accommodative SARB on hold should also exacerbate ZAR vulnerability going into next week.
  • However, although implied vol has risen sharply on a 1w basis, it remains mostly subdued on a 1-3m basis, with solid ZAR fundamentals likely to stave off an overly aggressive bout of weakness.
  • Signs of possible deals for Eskom to assist in debt management or a green transition are encouraging and will be monitored closely as the meeting with DM countries draws nearer.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.3734, Sup2: 14.3045, Res1: 14.5042, Res2: 14.5753

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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