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Free AccessUSD/ZAR Pressures 14.50 as Fed/SARB Week Approaches, 1-3m Vols Subdued
- USD/ZAR trades +0.49% higher this morning, retaining its bullish bias from the prior session – supported by early buying pressure on the BBDXY.
- The cross rose +0.68% yesterday, broadly bucking the trend of USD weakness as markets saw near-term vulnerabilities in ZAR at these firmer levels.
- The cross accelerated above its 100dma and is now approaching a resistance cluster in the 14.50-14.61 zone from lateral support, 38.2% fib and the 50 & 200dmas.
- Concerns about a relatively more hawkish than expected Fed next week, set against an accommodative SARB on hold should also exacerbate ZAR vulnerability going into next week.
- However, although implied vol has risen sharply on a 1w basis, it remains mostly subdued on a 1-3m basis, with solid ZAR fundamentals likely to stave off an overly aggressive bout of weakness.
- Signs of possible deals for Eskom to assist in debt management or a green transition are encouraging and will be monitored closely as the meeting with DM countries draws nearer.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.3734, Sup2: 14.3045, Res1: 14.5042, Res2: 14.5753
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.