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USDBRL Rises To Fresh 12-Month High, DI Curve Under Pressure

BRAZIL
  • Confirmation of an adjustment to Brazil’s fiscal targets and the risk-off backdrop across global markets has unsurprisingly weighed on local assets at today’s open. USDBRL (+0.67%) has pierced the 5.22 level, marking the pair at the highest levels since March 2023. This could signal scope for a move to the March 2023 highs at 5.3409 next.
  • In similar vein, Brazil swap rates have been rising sharply with long maturities up more than 20 bps on Monday. Pressure on the DI curve has continued today, with the Focus survey’s moderately higher adjustment to the 2024 year-end selic forecast bolstering the move. Contracts expiring in Jan ’26 are now roughly 25bps higher than Friday’s close.

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