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USDCAD Extends Decline On CAD GDP Beat But CAD Still Lags Peers

CANADA
  • USDCAD has touched a session low of 1.3807, which it continues to hover near for now, on the combination of stronger than expected Canadian GDP growth and softer US employment costs.
  • Real GDP increased 0.2% M/M in May vs cons 0.1 and the June advance surprisingly indicated a 0.1% M/M increase. It leaves monthly industry-based GDP growth on track for 2.2% annualized in Q2 vs the BoC’s recent forecast of 1.5%.
  • The combination helps pull the pair further away from what had looked increasingly stretched recent increases but it remains off support at 1.3797 (Jul 25 low).
  • However, the additional USD weakness since the releases sees CAD still lag other high beta peers on the day (excluding AUD after soft core CPI overnight) as BoC dovishness continues to weigh.
  • BoC-dated OIS dated has firmed only fractionally to 22bp of cuts for the September meeting and crudely between 56-58bps to year-end (on top of the 50bps seen to date).

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