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USDCAD Further Clears Bear Trigger After Latest Oil Rise

CANADA
  • Another extension in USD weakness sees USDCAD push to new lows of 1.3105 having earlier cleared the bear trigger drawn off the late June low of 1.3117.
  • Oil-tied currencies already underpinned by the rise in Brent crude back above the $80/bbl level for the first time since early May, have received another tailwind from the protests in Libya now halting its Sahara oil field.
  • CAD still heavily underperforms all majors except for EUR though, with its linkages to the US weighing further after yesterday’s soft CPI print. CAD’s own June CPI release lands on Tue, after its May report showed some progress on the month but not enough in trend terms to stop the BoC from hiking yesterday.
  • USDCAD support seen at 1.3084 (1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing) before 1.2992 (50% retrace of 2021 - 2022 upleg).

Source: Bloomberg

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