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USDCAD Has Seen Another Look At Resistance, But Expiry Leans Lower

CANADA
  • USDCAD saw a renewed push higher in European hours, touching a high of 1.3605 as it stopped fractionally short of firm resistance at 1.3606 (Feb 28 high). It’s another look at this high having peaked at 1.3602 before Friday’s ISM mfg miss.
  • It’s now back at ~1.359 but a renewed push higher, with the trend needle pointing north, could then open 1.3623 (61.8% of retrace of Nov 1 – Dec 27 bear leg).
  • Going against this trend, today’s larger option expiry for the NY cut is biased lower, with $931m at 1.3550, $480m at 1.3535 and a combined $595m between 1.3500-1.3510.
  • The cut lands with US ISM services, the data highlight for the day, whilst CAD-specific factors sees February serv/comp PMI at 0930ET before tomorrow’s BoC decision and productivity data.

Source: Bloomberg

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