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USDCAD Tests Sub-1.38, Next Major CAD Steer From Friday’s Jobs Report
- USDCAD is back testing levels below 1.38 having briefly managed 1.3793 overnight, with the decline in recent trade coming with US equity futures continuing off lows.
- Idiosyncratic factors also include at the margin a surprise goods trade surplus plus the services PMI offering signs of firms protecting their profit margins.
- Support is seen at 1.3781 (20-day EMA) before 1.3728 (50-day EMA).
- The BoC’s second cut of the cycle and dovish commentary on Jul 24 helped further stoke already stretched CAD net shorts, with CFTC data to Jul 30 rising to 56% of open interest to eclipse 2007 extremes.
- To this end, Friday’s labour report is watched particularly closely, with the climb in the unemployment rate trending at twice the pace of that in the US and signs of labor market slack a key consideration behind dovish BoC communications.
20-day EMA (green) and 50-day EMA (pink)Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.