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USDCAD Tests Sub-1.38, Next Major CAD Steer From Friday’s Jobs Report

CANADA
  • USDCAD is back testing levels below 1.38 having briefly managed 1.3793 overnight, with the decline in recent trade coming with US equity futures continuing off lows.
  • Idiosyncratic factors also include at the margin a surprise goods trade surplus plus the services PMI offering signs of firms protecting their profit margins.
  • Support is seen at 1.3781 (20-day EMA) before 1.3728 (50-day EMA).
  • The BoC’s second cut of the cycle and dovish commentary on Jul 24 helped further stoke already stretched CAD net shorts, with CFTC data to Jul 30 rising to 56% of open interest to eclipse 2007 extremes.
  • To this end, Friday’s labour report is watched particularly closely, with the climb in the unemployment rate trending at twice the pace of that in the US and signs of labor market slack a key consideration behind dovish BoC communications.

20-day EMA (green) and 50-day EMA (pink)Source: Bloomberg

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