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USDCAD With Room To Swing On US CPI

CANADA
  • USDCAD has pushed higher back to little changed on the day, just off a session high of 1.3231, ahead of US CPI shortly and then the BoC decision at 1000ET.
  • GoCs marginally outperform Tsys across the curve, holding the Can-US 2YY spread at a relatively tight -6.5bps.
  • The overnight low of 1.3200 probed a key support at 1.3203 (Jul 4 low). A clearer break could open a bear trigger at 1.3117 (Jun 27 low), whilst the resistance is seen at 1.3304 (Jul 10 high).
  • There’s little option expiry at nearby strikes for today’s NY cut, potentially creating more scope for moves on any surprises.

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