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USDCOP Rises 3% From Last Week’s Lows

COLOMBIA
  • USDCOP has maintained an upward bias from late last week, rising roughly 3% from the 3805 lows in line with the recovery for the greenback and higher US yields. The latest rebound in oil prices will help to support the peso at today’s open. It is worth noting that Colombia also launched its first put option this week under its new international reserves accumulation program.
  • There has been a lack of meaningful developments in Colombia this week with markets still focused on news regarding the minimum wage amendment. As noted, this potentially eliminates a key source of uncertainty for the central bank board who have been divided over monetary easing. However, JPMorgan did note the government resolution in the MW appears as a deterrent for accelerating the easing pace by the end of this month and will wait for the December CPI print to reassess their monetary policy call. Itaú added that overall, the double-digit increase in the minimum wage will keep the disinflationary process slow. They therefore expect a gradual easing cycle, with a further 25bp cut in January, bringing rates to 12.75% and forecast the policy rate falling to 8% by end-2024.
  • December inflation data is due on January 09, where annual headline CPI is expected to decline to 9.48% from 10.15% in November. The next BanRep meeting is scheduled for January 31.
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