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DOLLAR-INR: USDINR continues to rally as the rupee comes under pressure over
fears that the country will become embroiled in the potential trade war between
the U.S. and China.
- USDINR, currently at 65.67, looks set to test the September 2017 high and
potentially the gap at 66.40. In an additional blow, in its semi-annual FX
policy report released on Friday, the US Tsy placed India on the list of
countries that deserve further monitoring for potential unfair currency
practices, the first such time that India has been named on the list.
- While this may encourage the RBI to reduce reserve purchases, which would be
bullish for the INR, it also increases the risk that trade tensions between
India and the U.S. will rise. That said, with exports representing less than 20%
of GDP and external debt liabilities largely covered by foreign reserve
holdings, the economy and currency should remain well insulated from global
shocks. With real interest rates high and rising, and the real effective
exchange rate falling to 2-year lows, there is potential for the INR to
outperform the region.