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USGC-Asia LNG Arbitrage Window Firmly Shut: Platts

LNG

The arbitrage economics of pulling US cargoes to Asia over Europe have been in negative territory since Jan. 3, according to Platts, following a general trend since September.

  • A prompt cargo loading in the USGC would earn 76.4 cents/MMBtu less by sending to Asia, compared to Europe.
  • This considering the different delivery periods (H1 March for Asia and H2 Feb for Europe) and taking a US cargo via the Cape of Good Hope.
  • High inventories and weak demand in Europe and Asia, coupled with healthy US production have pushed down prices.
  • Arbitrage economics have been worsened by logistical issues from the Panama Canal drought and Red Sea tensions.
  • Charles Kim, senior principal research analyst at S&P Global, said no LNG ship transit via the Panama Canal was observed at all so far this month, while the ship segment's daily transit record stood at 0.6 in November and December last year.
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