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'Vaccine Bounce' For PM Wearing Off In Polls

UK

Some extremely good opinion polling numbers for UK PM Boris Johnson's Conservative party recorded last week showing signs of wearing off as two polls release today both show a decline in support for the governing party.

  • YouGov: CON: 42% (-3), LAB: 33% (+1), LDM: 7% (+1), GRN: 6% (-1), SNP: 4% (-1), RFM: 3% (=). 9-10 Mar. Changes w/ 3-4 Mar.
  • Savanta ComRes: CON: 39% (-3), LAB: 37% (+1), LDM: 8% (=), GRN: 4% (=), SNP: 4% (=). 12-14 Mar. Changes w/ 5-7 Mar.
  • Conservatives have seen a major boost in polling support in recent weeks as vaccine rollout accelerates at pace. While these polls may indicate that the bounce has reached its peak, the party still remains ahead of Labour (and by a considerable 9% margin in the YouGov poll).
  • Both Conservatives and Labour trying to manage expectations ahead of upcoming English council and mayoral elections, and the Hartlepool by-election (all May 6). The last time these councils/mayoralties were up for election was May 2017, the high-point in PM Theresa May's tenure in office. Labour experienced significant losses across England, and as such expectation is heavy on the party to make up a goof proportion of these seats come May. A poor set of results could do further damage to Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer's position in the party.

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