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VF Corp EUR Bonds Outperform YTD Though LT Path Implies HY Downgrade

CONSUMER CYCLICALS


  • US retailer VF Corp’s EUR bonds are amongst the best performers in BBG’s €IG Corp Index over the past two weeks.
  • As flagged at the time, VF Corp, which owns brands such as The North Face, Timberland and Vans, saw credit spreads blow out in December on the news of a cyber-attack, theft of consumer data and delays in orders during the busy Christmas period.
  • The widening has reversed in the new year – we note an SEC filing made yesterday indicating that VF Corp does not expect a material impact on its financial condition (in line with earlier management commentary).
  • Analysts have noted that their USD spreads seemingly already price in a downgrade to HY and looking at recent performance, we see the same in their EUR lines (see chart below, comps are global EUR-denominated Apparel & Textile bonds).
  • VF Corp (Baa3[N]/BBB[N]) was downgraded in June by S&P and in Nov by Moody’s with the latter citing challenges at Vans and reliance on The North Face. Despite an expected improvement in Debt/EBITDA from 4.8x at FY24 to 3.7x at FY25, the reliance on an uncertain turnaround strategy and asset sales to reduce debt weighed on the outlook.
  • Q3 earnings come on 06 February.

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