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RBNZ: VIEW: ANZ note that "trend declines in interest rates over recent decades,
combined with the advent of the current crisis, have raised the very real
possibility that a negative OCR could be seen next year. The RBNZ and financial
market participants are readying themselves for the possibility For households
and most firms, interest rates on savings and borrowing wouldn't be negative if
the OCR were negative - but deposit and borrowing rates would likely fall
further, helping to stimulate the economy. The exchange rate is also likely to
fall. There are risks associated with a negative OCR, and reasons for the RBNZ
to be cautious. At some point, a lower OCR can impair financial market function,
and costs start to outweigh benefits. There are better options that we think the
RBNZ would use before a negative OCR. But it pays to be prepared. If the
economic situation was dire enough, other tools had been exhausted, and the
benefits were deemed to outweigh the costs, the RBNZ could choose to deploy a
negative OCR next year. We don't think it is probable, but the possibility
cannot be ruled out."