VIEW: ANZ now expect "the RBNZ to cut the......>

RBNZ: VIEW: ANZ now expect "the RBNZ to cut the OCR 50bp in March and a further

25bp in May, taking the OCR to just 0.25%. The COVID-19 situation is evolving

very rapidly, spreading fast outside China - including, now, in the US - and the

virus is now present in New Zealand, although it appears to be isolated so far.

A marked global slowdown is guaranteed, due to both demand and supply

disruptions. Our forecasts assume New Zealand GDP stalls in the first half of

the year, with a gradual recovery from there. But although New Zealand is better

placed than many countries to weather this shock, we see clear risks of a larger

slowdown or even recession. Fiscal policy will need to do the heavy lifting, but

lowering the OCR will ease financial pressure, facilitate a lower NZD, aid

confidence at the margin, and support the recovery."