VIEW: ANZ "think the RBA will be reasonably.....>

RBA: VIEW: ANZ "think the RBA will be reasonably flexible about the timing of

the next move. If the data shows a significant improvement the Bank might hold

off from cutting for some months. But the Bank is frustrated by the lack of

progress toward its inflation objective and concerned about what this could mean

for the credibility of the target and inflation expectations. This suggests to

us that if the range of employment data doesn't show some very clear

improvement, the next cut will be delivered as soon as August (we think July is

very unlikely because the employment data for May will be distorted by the

election and hard to interpret). Certainly our current expectation of a November

rate cut is looking like being too far out. Second, unless the Bank becomes more

bearish on the central economic outlook, a move below 1% is not imminent. Given

recent global developments the Bank may indeed become more bearish and so think

there is more to do than a cumulative 50bps of cuts. In part this will depend on

other arms of policy, which the Governor again emphasised have important roles

to play, and the AUD. But for now we don't think this is in the RBA's near-term

playbook."