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VIEW: ANZ write "the Reserve Bank last week....>
RBNZ: VIEW: ANZ write "the Reserve Bank last week sounded a slightly more
cautious tone about the future path for the economy and inflation than in their
November projections, but only modestly so. The implied first OCR hike was
pushed out to mid-2021 from late-2020. The market was anticipating a more
significant change in tone, perhaps influenced by dovish surprises from the US
Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. This meant the NZD and
interest rates spiked on the day, even though the surprise relative to most
economists' expectations (including ours) was small. Our expectation for OCR
cuts kicking off in November is built on a forecast that GDP growth will fail to
accelerate over this year as the RBNZ is projecting, leading to the RBNZ in time
concluding that more monetary stimulus is required. There is plenty of data
between now and then to make or break our case."
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