VIEW: Barclays now "forecast two hikes over.....>

FED: VIEW: Barclays now "forecast two hikes over the coming year, one in

September 2019 and a second in March 2020. Our outlook for balance sheet

policies remains unchanged; we believe that the committee would like to reach a

level of excess reserves of a little more than $1.0trn, which could be met in Q1

20, but the risk is it stops the runoff later this year with excess reserves at

a higher level. We still think that the Fed has more work to do and believe that

the US economy will evolve in a way that warrants further policy rate increases.

That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually slow back toward trend, so the

number of remaining rate hikes is likely to be limited. We see risks as about

balanced between an elongated expansion with a second mini-tightening cycle in

2020 or 2021, and near-term recession risks. An elongated cycle could occur if

the rise in participation continues or if risks to financial stability emerge

due to excessive risk-taking behavior. We do not see the probability of a

near-term recession as elevated in light of labor market momentum, although we

remain watchful for signs that the economy is slowing faster than we expect,

including developments in banks' willingness to lend."