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VIEW: Barclays write that "2 developments.......>

FED: VIEW: Barclays write that "2 developments have altered the extent & timing
of our Fed outlook. 1st, the intensification of financial mkt stress late last
year caused us to remove one 25bp rate hike from our f'cast & project a lower
terminal rate. The 2nd development came in the December employment report. While
the report was solid on virtually every front & affirms our belief that the US
econ will prove resilient to external weakness, the rise in labor force
participation has caused us to revise our outlook in favor of a milder
undershoot of the natural rate of unemployment. While we retain our long-held
view that the participation rate is likely to move largely sideways until the
next econ downturn, the sizeable bounce in participation has pushed the
unemployment rate up to 3.9% in Dec. Labor market conditions at multi-decade
highs should mean that the Fed continues to signal that further rate hikes
remain apt, but our outlook for a smaller undershoot of NAIRU coincides with the
Fed's desire to remain patient. As a result, we push out the timing of the
remaining rate hikes in our official f'cast. In addition to the hike we project
in Jun '19, we exp. additional rate increases in Dec '19 & in Jun '20."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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