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VIEW: BMO: Stickiness Of Underlying Inflation To See Final 25bp Hike In Jan

CANADA
  • BMO note that beyond the rate hike itself, equally important was the messaging on possible future moves, and the tone here was definitely on the mild side. Dropping any suggestion that rates still need to go higher, the Bank indicated that this could possibly be the last move (depending on the data, of course).
  • The key statement was: "Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target."
  • From having been split on this decision, the consensus and markets will now debate the chances of a move at the January 25 decision, and it's already seen as a close call. At this point, BMO stick with a terminal rate of 4.50% reached with one final 25bp hike next month as they are more concerned than consensus on the stickiness of underlying inflation.
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