VIEW: BNZ note that "we see no reason to.......>

RBNZ: VIEW: BNZ note that "we see no reason to change our view that the cash

rate is on hold until the first quarter of 2022. Risks are two way. In the event

the coronavirus gets really nasty, in a GDP growth sense, it is reasonable to

assume the RBNZ would cut the cash rate in May or August. On the flip side, if

the coronavirus' impacts are short-lived and our assumed fiscal easing is

announced then a rate increase in the first quarter of next year looks

increasingly plausible and might be accompanied by a more aggressive rate track

thereafter than we have currently assumed."

- "In terms of the RBNZ's interest rate track, it is noteworthy that the low in

the OCR path has been raised from 0.9% to 1.0%. This is a very specific

indication that the Bank no longer holds an easing bias. Moreover, by June 2021

the interest rate track is 20 basis points higher than in November and the cash

rate rises to 1.9% by the March quarter 2023. At face value, the track implies a

first rate hike around the September quarter 2021."