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VIEW CHANGE: HSBC looks for first cut in November rather than August

BOE
  • HSBC notes that its view change is due to "MPC comments and upside GDP news" - it has also raised its 2024 GDP forecast from 0.9% to 1.2% and 2025 from 1.3% to 1.5%. It also notes that it expects services CPI to increase to 5.8%Y/Y in next week's June print (a tenth higher than last month) and that shipping costs have continued to rise.
  • "It's possible the MPC will see enough by the 19 September meeting and we think all the upcoming decisions remain finely balanced. However, by the time of the 7 November meeting we expect to see a clearer easing in services prices and wage momentum."
  • HSBC still sees quarterly cuts thereafter "with clearer evidence of disinflation emerging later this year and beyond."
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