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View change: JP Morgan no longer look for 75bp next week; look for 50bp instead

BOE
  • "Surprises in the UK data this week have been two sided... But weaker signals about near term growth going into next week’s meeting, and a corresponding move in markets after this morning’s data, suggest the MPC will lean towards a 50bp hike for next week instead of 75bp."
  • "The MPC will hence go into the meeting a little more cautious about growth in the near term, and under less pressure from markets to step up the pace of tightening. It is likely to direct more attention towards its November forecast meeting in order to take stock of the overall macro picture - which would allow time to incorporate next week’s fiscal announcement. We think these developments overall now argue more in favour of a 50bp move for next week, and hence we are changing our call back to that outcome.."
  • "We forecast a 1-6-2 split vote for 50bps, with Tenreyro on 25bp and Mann and Ramsden on 75bp. For now we are leaving our forecast for the terminal rate in 1Q23 at 4.0% (we push an extra 25bp into that quarter) but will review this after seeing the outcome and guidance of next week’s MPC meeting."
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