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VIEW CHANGE: NatWest Markets look for 5.50% peak

BOE
  • "The clear shift in majority support from +50bp in June to +25bp in August adds to the mildly dovish feel of August’s policy deliberations."
  • "The August Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecasts reinforce expectations that Bank Rate is close to its peak."
  • "The alternative market rates profile is almost identical at 2-3 years, but this would require relatively early and, over time, extensive rate cuts... That appears to indicate that aggressive policy-tightening (as per June’s +50bp) would be pointless."
  • "We are revising our Bank Rate forecast and now look for just one more 25bp hike to 5.5% in September, with modest risks of 5.75% in November. Our previous forecast (published on 22 June) was for a 6.0% peak in November." (The previous forecast had assumed a 50bp hike today).
  • Base case for QT for the year from Oct23 remains for "the total run-down to increase to ~£95bn next year (compared to £80bn this year)."
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