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View Change: TD look for 75bps next week; 3.50% by year-end; cuts in H2-23

BOE
  • "The MPC is likely to take its cues from the labour market and inflation data, and less from the growth figures. In our view, this shifts the odds next week marginally in favour of a 75bps rate hike. The labour market data is largely what has tipped us over the edge from a 50bps hike."
  • "While fiscal policy may help soften inflation expectations somewhat, we don't think the MPC will be comfortable slowing the pace of hikes materially until they start to see evidence of this in the data. Their gradualist approach has, so far, not succeeded in taming the vicious cycle of wages and inflation."
  • TD Securities now expects two further 50bp hikes to a terminal rate of 3.50% and "and if November's budget surprises with even more fast fiscal easing, may see the MPC hiking beyond 3.50% in early 2023."
  • TD Securities notes that "cuts are likely to begin in 2023H2, at a pace of about 50bps per quarter back toward neutral as inflation falls sharply."
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