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VIEW: Goldman On Powell

FED
  • Following Powell’s hearing in the House Financial Services Committee yesterday, Goldman continue to expect seven hikes in 2022. They also see the Fed starting balance sheet reduction in June and finishing it in 2025.
  • Chair Powell said that he was “inclined to propose and support a 25 basis-point rate hike” at the FOMC’s March meeting at today’s hearing in the House Financial Services Committee.
  • Powell also suggested that if inflation is stronger than FOMC participants expect, the Committee “would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25bps at a meeting or meetings,” and pointed to the consecutive hiking pace of the early 2000s when discussing the trajectory of rate increases beyond March.
  • On balance sheet reduction, Powell noted that he did not expect the Committee to finalize its balance-sheet reduction plans at the March meeting, but said that he expected the process to take “something like three years.”
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