VIEW: Goldman Sachs: A Later Start To Policy Tightening

Goldman Sachs note that "with growth still subdued despite an easing in virus restrictions following the delta wave, we now expect a 2.3% Q/Q contraction in real GDP for Indonesia in Q3 (compared to 1.8% prev.). We also lower our inflation forecasts through year-end '21 as food inflation has surprised to the downside, and core inflation is unlikely to pick up as much as we had estimated previously given limited reopening progress (inflation doesn't begin to pick up significantly until late in H122 in our new forecast). Given our baseline of slower growth in H221, still muted inflation and a conducive external environment, we now do not expect BI to begin normalizing policy settings until Q222 (from Q122 earlier). Thereafter, we expect BI to start tightening liquidity conditions first, pushing effective rates back up towards the policy rate, from 75bp below the policy rate currently. Then as liquidity conditions return to neutral, we expect BI to start hiking policy rates - with a hike each in Q3 & Q4 '22."