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VIEW: More Work To Do

RBNZ

ANZ note that they have changed their “OCR call. We now see the OCR peaking at 4.75% (previously 4.00%), with 25bp hikes added to our profile in February, April, and May next year.”

  • “The economy is not rolling over, with the tight labour market and strong wage growth partially offsetting the impact of higher interest rates. The low NZD is also a meaningful offset to current monetary conditions.”
  • “We are not bullish on the growth outlook. The RBNZ needs to see slower growth, and it’ll get it. But we think it’ll take a higher OCR to do the job. Risks are firmly tilted towards inflation and inflation expectations not falling as far nor as fast as is required to get real interest rates to a sustainably contractionary level, meaning more work for the OCR to do.”
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
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