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VIEW: On Friday Bank of America........>

AUSSIE BONDS
AUSSIE BONDS: VIEW: On Friday Bank of America noted that "in our view,
risk-reward favours near-term tactical 3s-10s curve steepeners. The combination
of the RBA beginning to slow nominal bond purchases, unprecedented government
borrowing and the collapse in long-end breakevens provides scope for nominal
3s-10s curves to push steeper. The Bank has reduced daily bond purchase volumes
(as we had expected) to around AUD 1bn from 5bn (20th March). We think RBA bond
purchases of around AUD 5-6bn per week is a more sustainable pace over the next
6-months. We see value in 3s-10s futures curve steepeners around 45-50bps and
target a move towards 70-75bps. Risk is from a deterioration to market
functioning that prompts a ramp-up of long-end RBA purchases."
- Also, "the aggressive repricing of nominal rates has mostly driven the
repricing in breakevens. The shock to global demand (and oil prices) means there
is now risk of a soft Q2 CPI print that will hurt carrying dynamics for
front-end linkers. We think it is more likely that the AUD breakeven curve moves
steeper (rather than flatter) and unconventional RBA measures should help to
improve the medium inflationary outlook."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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