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VIEW: Q3 Data Result In GDP Revisions In Different Directions

AUSTRALIA DATA

After the last of the Q3 data ahead of Wednesday’s national accounts, there have been a number of revisions to expectations and not in the same direction. Consensus is for a 0.6% q/q rise in Q3 GDP.

  • NAB has revised up its Q3 GDP estimate to 0.8% q/q from 0.6%. Economist Nugent said that partial indicators were robust and that private sector wage growth is accelerating so it’s “too early for the RBA to consider pausing the rate hike cycle". NAB expects growth of under 1% in both 2023 and 2024 as higher rates, cost of living, fading post-pandemic effect and reduced household saving impact.
  • RBC has cut its Q3 GDP forecast to 0.5% q/q after the downside surprise to government spending and business investment. It believes the key doubt for tomorrow is household consumption, which it expects to slow but remain robust on solid services spending.
    - The Australian
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