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AUSTRALIA: VIEW: RBC note that "a return to level 3 restrictions for most of
Victoria for the next 6 weeks will have an immediate impact upon activity. More
worrying is the risk of a larger and more enduring hit to biz confidence than
earlier in the year amid heightened uncertainty & the accompanying implications
for hiring, investment & innovation longer term. SMEs are particularly
vulnerable. We adj. our growth forecasts accordingly, taking Q3 GDP down by
0.6%. However, given a likely better starting point for Q2 & our long held view
of only a modest & partial recovery well into '21, we expect GDP to contract by
a marginally better -3.7% in '20 with '21 growth slightly lower at 2.3%. The
risk to confidence from the re-instatement of restrictions casts some downside
risk to our GDP forecasts. The Victorian developments add weight to our view
that further fiscal stimulus in Q4 is likely & we have assumed this in our base
case for some time through a tgtd extension of the JobKeeper program and/or
industry assistance. Victorians will now likely be disproportionately
represented in any revised programs. There is also merit in a more immediate
Victorian specific package."