VIEW: Westpac note that "the scenario.....>

AUSTRALIA: VIEW: Westpac note that "the scenario we present has the Australian

economy stalling in Q1 2020 then rebounding in Q2 (the Q1 forecast also includes

a -0.1ppt impact from this summer's bushfire emergency). Annual growth for

December 2020 rounds down to 1.9%yr from 2.1%yr previously. This is in the

context our revised 2020 growth forecasts of 5.3% for China and 2.8% for the

world overall. Note, quantifying the economic impact of the coronavirus is

extremely difficult given the single historic precedent and the evolution of the

global economy since 2003. Risks to the revised forecasts below are therefore

significant. Regarding policy, the RBA has shown that they believe these shocks

(the coronavirus outbreak and Australia's bushfire emergency) will prove

temporary and so a near-term policy reaction is unlikely. We however remain of

the view that further policy accommodation will prove necessary when it becomes

clear to the RBA that its current overly-optimistic expectations for growth and

jobs are not being met. Currently we have April pencilled in for the next cut,

but recognise that the Governor may need more time to be convinced that further

action will be required."