Volatile Through Thursday But Finishes Firmer Amid Risk Off, BoJ Rinban Ops Today

USD/JPY was volatile through Thursday trade, from earlier lows of 148.51 the pair rebounded to 150.89 by early US trade. From there we mostly tracked lower and sit 149.30/35 in early Friday dealings, with yen posting a 0.42% gain for Thursday's session.

• The softer US data, with the weaker ISM manufacturing jobs sub index particularly notable, weighed on US yields across the Tsy benchmarks. The 10yr yield is back sub 4.00%, while the front end 2yr yield fell 11bps to 4.15%, as Fed easing expectations continue to build.
• Yen received another fillip from the weaker global equity backdrop. US and EU shares slumped, with the Nasdaq down 2.3%, as softer US data and tech earnings concerns weighing. On-going Middle East geopolitical concerns was another headwind.
• For USD/JPY techs, the bear cycle remains in play. The 148.54 level, 61.8% of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg, has been pierced. A resumption of weakness would open 148.04, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 155.22, the Jul 30 high.
• On the data front, today we have July monetary base data (a non-market mover). BoJ Rinban ops will be eyed though. A Bloomberg survey shows the median forecast for the BOJ policy rate is now at 0.50% for year end, double the expectation compared to the previous survey (see this link).
• In the option expiry space for NY cut later we have the following: Y151.00($871mln), Y151.41($2.0bln), Y153.00($798mln), Y155.00($2.6bln).