Volatile TTF Assesses Potential Disruption to Global LNG Supplies

In volatile trading, European TTF gas pulled back from the high of 43.5€/MWH earlier in the week amid fears of global LNG supply disruption from potential strikes in Australia. The risk adds to ongoing supply concerns from upcoming Norway maintenance and ongoing Russia tensions despite high storage.

• TTF SEP 23 up 2.4% at 37.95€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.6% at 50€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.6% at 51€/MWh
• Talks are ongoing and further negotiations are scheduled for 15 Aug after workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG facilities in Australia earlier this week voted to strike. The action is a threat to about 10% of global LNG supplies with the potential for workforce to cease operations with seven days’ notice.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated today at 325mcm/d ahead of an expected drop later this month amid further maintenance works. A Troll 17.5mcm/d capacity cut is due to end on 14 Aug, 2 days earlier than expected according to Gassco this morning.
• Total European gas storage is gradually rising towards the EU pre winter target with gas in store at 88.28% full on a 9 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 74.1%.
• LNG sendout to Europe is back above 300mcm/d this week but supplies are still below levels seen this time last year after a steady decline since May. The recent surge in TTF has pushed spread back in favour of US LNG supplies to Europe over Asia.
• Temperature forecasts in Europe are still showing above normal across Europe throughout most of the two week outlook.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady today at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 63.2mcm/d.