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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
German wage growth has moderated recently, in terms of both overall and negotiated wages. This broadly matches ECB expectations, with continued moderation key to capping broader inflation pressures.
- Nominal overall wage growth declined to +2.7% Y/Y in June (latest data available) - a significant slowdown vs +6.9% May. This translated to a slowdown in real wage growth to +0.5% Y/Y (vs +4.4% May), the lowest rate since December 2023. This provides some downside risk for the overall Q2 print, which is yet to be released.
- The slowdown in wage growth has been broad-based, with growth for the lowest income quintile remaining the strongest but declining to +5.8% Y/Y in June from +8.4% in May. Wage growth for the highest quintile moderated to +3.4% Y/Y in June (vs +7.3% May).
- Growth in negotiated wages remains elevated but below recent highs. For July, excl. one-offs, negotiated wages rose 4.3% Y/Y (vs +4.2% June, +5.0% May). In services, growth remained stronger than in industry (+4.5% Y/Y and +3.6% Y/Y respectively, both unch from June). The next major round of central negotiations in Germany is expected around September, when contracts in the metal and electrical industry will expire. That could provide some volatility for the growth rate again.
- For reference, about 49% of contracts were based on centrally negotiated wages in 2023, according to Destatis.
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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