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Warmer Temperatures and Slow Freeport Restart Supporting TTF

NATGAS

TTF shows further support on Friday after upward revisions in near term temperatures and some higher competition for LNG cargoes from Asia as well as a slow return of Freeport.

  • TTF AUG 24 up 0.6% at 31.3€/MWh
  • Overall pressure still remains on TTF as gas storage levels in the region breach 80% this week and supply fundamentals from Norway grow.
  • Freeport gas flows are rising as it aims to return post shutdown for Beryl but the restart has been more laboured than anticipated.
  • European gas storage was 80% full on July 10 vs the 5-yr seasonal norm of 70% for this time of year according to GIE.
  • US liquefied natural gas exports are currently more profitable to Asia in August, September and October. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $2.13/MMBtu in August.
  • Norwegian nominated flows to the UK and Northwest Europe terminals at 339.90 mcm/d vs 5-day moving avg 334.86 mcm/d according to Gassco.
  • Uncertainty in the Asian LNG market has sparked stronger prices in Jan. 2025, strengthening the corresponding JKM-NWE derivative spread to the widest across the forward curve, Platts said this week.
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