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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

Weaker Ahead Of A Busy Schedule

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Treasuries have traded weaker overnight Wednesday on average volumes, with multiple points of interest on the schedule including inflation data, 10Y supply, and FOMC members' commentary.

  • Curve a little steeper: 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.2405%, 5-Yr is up 1.6bps at 0.8422%, 10-Yr is up 1.9bps at 1.3675%, and 30-Yr is up 1.1bps at 2.0094%. Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 6.5/32 at 133-11 (L: 133-09.5 / H: 133-17).
  • The focal point for the week comes at 0830ET with the release of July CPI data - expectations are for the headline and core readings to begin demonstrating that the surge in the past few months was indeed "transitory". We'll put out a preview including sell-side summaries shortly.
  • Also highlighting the calendar is the $41B 10Y Note auction at 1300ET (there's also $30B 119-day CMB sale at 1130ET). NY Fed buys ~$2.025B of 22.5-30Y Tsys.
  • KC Fed Pres George's appearance at the NABE conference at 1200ET is the Fed speaker highlight (first appearance since late May); we hear again from Atlanta's Bostic at 1030ET. Also potentially of note, NY Fed's Logan speaks on emergency lending at 0800ET.
  • US Jul budget statement out at 1400ET too. Senate passed the $3.5T budget resolution around 0400ET along party lines as expected, setting up at least a month of legislative wrangling.