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Weakness Continues Post RBA SoMP, Higher US Yields/Softer Equities Weigh

AUD

AUD/USD has continued to fall post the RBA SoMP release. The Statement doesn't appear to shed much light on the outlook, but there appears very little wiggle room in terms of the RBA's inflation outlook. Headline inflation only just returns to the top end of the target band (2-3%) by 2025, while core holds at the top end of the target band in H2 2025 (3%).

  • The currency is tracking lower, last in the 0.6350/55 region, down a further 0.25% versus Thursday NY closing levels. The currency is the weakest performer in the G10 space so far.
  • Headwinds from Thursday's NY session, in terms of higher US yields (+1bps for the 10yr), along with a weaker equity backdrop have continued in the first part of Asia Pac Friday trade.
  • The Oct 31 low is 0.6315, while 0.6270, Oct 26 low is the bear trigger, in terms of downside targets.
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