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Week Ahead (1/3)

UK
  • The weekend saw the independent pay review bodies recommend 5.5% increases for some public sector workers including doctors, nurses and teachers. The government had budgeted for around 3% in their plans but Chancellor Reeves hinted towards an above-inflation pay increase.
  • In an interview on the BBC she said that she would make an announcement on public sector pay by the end of this month (note that also by the end of this month she will report on the public finances to parliament and announce the date of the Budget - we expect 30 October, or possibly 6/13 November). Note that parliament rises on Tuesday 30 July for the recess.
  • Reeves sounded as if she would accept the recommendations, citing the potential for industrial action and “fairness”, but it will be a difficult balancing act for her to take.
  • In opposition, the Labour party consistently noted that they would follow independent pay review advice but Reeves refused to be held to this in her interview – instead deferring any commitments until later in the month – noting that she would immediately be asked where the money was going to come from if she made the commitment now.
  • On a side note, former Chancellor Hunt was also interviewed at the weekend and he stated that it would have been unlikely that the Conservatives would have been able to find the money for a tax cut in the Autumn – signalling that public finances are constrained.
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