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Week Ahead (2/3)

UK
  • Potentially above-expected public sector pay awards would make it harder for a series of cuts from the Bank of England and hence this morning we are seeing SONIA futures underperform, particularly in the Whites and Reds with 2-year gilt yields also rising by over 4bp this morning leading to a flattening of the curve. 2s10s is around 2.9bp flatter today at writing.
  • Reeves was also grilled on whether she would remove the two-child limit on child benefit, a move that she said would cost about GBP3bln. She did not rule out the move but stated that she would not make any commitments without them being fully funded. Last week it was reported that there was huge pressure from backbenchers pushing this policy. The policy was not included in the King’s Speech but Reeves will be under huge pressure to deliver the policy in the Autumn Budget.
  • Funding this on top of higher-than-budgeted public sector wage increases would be difficult, however, without some currently unannounced tax increases. Public finance data released last Friday also showed higher borrowing than expected, which is also going to make finding extra money for these policies difficult.
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